I have a feeling that if it is a cold winter we may see energy prices tip the US ( and perhaps the world) into another recession. Here is the hypothetical train of thought.
High Oil & Natural Gas Prices will not necessarily mean recession for the OECD (as they represent a small percent of household income). However for much of the developing world it will (eg Jamaica, ).
If China and Japan call back a lot of the the money they have in US Government TBills to deal with the raising domestic energy prices. The US government will have no other option than to raise interest rates to finance the debt. As interest rates increase the stock market has a major correction and housing prices fall. The US government is overly focused on the war in Iraq - and the domestic economy goes to recession. Natural Gas - which is running out in North America and represents 65% of heating in the US and 95% of new power plants triples in price.
Economics is very complex - particularly due to the "chaos theory effects". However, the 70s oil shocks could come again.
Update - I wrote this 3 weeks ago - and it looks more possible. Greenspan trying to tell the market everything is ok only will do so much and there was an article in the wsj talking about how heating costs will go up by about 28% for the north east. This will _definitely_ hurt walmart.
What will be people do if heating doubles in cost? Perhaps coal would be an option - But I checked around and there is only one furnace company still selling a coal furnace.